COVID-19: Now what?

May
29
2020
by
Lynne McTaggart
/
658
Comments

As many states and countries are beginning to emerge from lockdown, media outlets around the world continue to dwell on the numbers: the total number of cases and death tolls; the R numbers and whether individual countries have brought infection rates down to acceptable levels; a nation’s total stockpile of test kits and personal protective equipment; the number of businesses kitting out with all the protective new gear; the fresh totals of the unemployed or firms going to the wall as a result of the virus.

And, largely based on these numbers, we’ve all made the automatic assumption that we’re going to suffer a second peak and so must rush to put in place track and trace and immunity passports, and fast-track anything that might turn out to be the miracle drug or vaccine to deliver us from this Armageddon-like evil.
What is missing from these daily figures and most news reports is a willingness to back up a step and ask a few basic questions.
Have any of those measures to control the virus actually worked? Will all our ideas about creating great swathes of immunity prevent a second peak?
And will there in fact be a second peak so that all those future measures turn out to be necessary?
Any voices of dissent to the prevailing triad of lockdown-track and trace-vaccinate haven’t received the front-page airing they should have had, as Sherelle Jacobs recently noted in the UK’s Daily Telegraph.
There are, for instance, the quiet and persistent noises made by Nobel prize-winning mathematician and Stanford University professor of structural biology Michael Leavitt, who won his prize for developing multiscale models for complex chemical systems.
He and his wife split their time between the US, Israel and China (his wife researches Chinese art and curates Chinese photographers), and after hearing from Chinese friends during the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Hubei province, Leavitt started tracking the numbers.
But he came to a very different view.
He discovered that while the initial rate of the infection in the Hubei province was increasing at first by 30 percent a day – an exponential rise that meant that the entire world should have been infected by 90 days, he says – the path of the virus suddenly changed.
When Leavitt first started examining the figures on February 1, Hubei reported 1800 new cases a day, reaching 4700 a day six days later, before plummeting ‘linearly.’ The same happened with deaths a week later. The curve hadn’t just flattened – the peak had been reached and started rapidly crashing down.
Leavitt predicted that the situation would improve in all of China in two weeks and predicted the death rate stopping at 3,250 deaths. By early March the virus infection would just peter out, he said.
He was right, but no one listened to him. The world continued to be bewitched by Imperial College physicist Neil Ferguson and his doomsday reckonings of the virus infecting 81 percent of the population with half a million deaths in the UK and 2,200,000 deaths in the US unless both governments adopted total lockdown measures, a prediction based on a presumption of viral exponential growth.
Leavitt and his Stanford lab went on to analyze the figures in South Korea, Iran, Italy and New York City (and now elsewhere) and found the same pattern: an exponential peak of just two weeks before the virus slowed down and eventually burnt itself out.
Rather than one year of excess deaths, as has been calculated, Leavitt demonstrated that the figures show only one month of excess death and cases flattening out among a particular fraction of the total population.
So that begs the question: were months of full lockdown needed? A University of East Anglia study of 30 European countries concluded that while closing schools, banning mass gatherings and shutting down certain businesses in the hospitality sector (restaurants, bars and pubs, leisure centers), were effective in slowing the virus, adopting wholesale lockdown measures such as closing the whole of ‘non-essential’ businesses, enforcing ‘stay home’ policies and even wearing facemasks in public, were not.
In fact, the researchers were surprised to find that stay at home policies actually showed a positive association with cases, said Dr Julii Brainard, of UAE’s Medical School. (British higher death rates, like Belgium’s, may also be related to their failure to protect the populations of nursing homes.)
And Oxford University’s Carl Prof Heneghan, a leading epidemiology at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, has continuously maintained that the Imperial College modeling, at the heart of so much of the  world’s full lockdown policies, was wrong: the virus incidence of the virus had actually peaked a week before lockdown was enforced.
Scientists understand that after four or five days incubation, deaths tend to appear two or three weeks after symptoms first appear. But in the UK, for instance, deaths began to plateau 14 days after lockdown was introduced, following the path of the pre-lockdown incidence, which was already beginning to fall.
As a JP Morgan analysis by Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kalan concluded: “Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”
As for a second wave, the JP Morgan team analyzed individual states and European countries that had relaxed lockdown and found no increase in cases.
The problem with full-scale lockdown turns out to be the same problem with planned vaccination efforts: the prima facie assumption of positive benefit. Of course this is the right thing to do.
The nightly horrors of fresh fatality numbers among the old and vulnerable on the evening news should not prevent us from taking a deep breath and asking a few cold, hard questions.
It may well be that this killer virus burns brightly before just fizzling out. But we will never know unless we are willing to ask.

Facebook Comments

We embed Facebook Comments plugin to allow you to leave comment at our website using your Facebook account. This plugin may collect your IP address, your web browser User Agent, store and retrieve cookies on your browser, embed additional tracking, and monitor your interaction with the commenting interface, including correlating your Facebook account with whatever action you take within the interface (such as “liking” someone’s comment, replying to other comments), if you are logged into Facebook. For more information about how this data may be used, please see Facebook’s data privacy policy: https://www.facebook.com/about/privacy/update

Lynne McTaggart

Lynne McTaggart is an award-winning journalist and the author of seven books, including the worldwide international bestsellers The Power of Eight, The Field, The Intention Experiment and The Bond, all considered seminal books of the New Science and now translated into some 30 languages.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

658 comments on “COVID-19: Now what?”

  1. Thanks Lynne. I am in your camp. Unfortunately, people are so scared out there that they have no clue what is really going on. If they want to mask-up, vaccinate, take more drugs or self-isolate, have at 'er. We don't want to hear about it when all these things don't work. I am hoping that this is a wake-up call to everyone to take care of their health and immune system so that they are prepared for something like this. "In my dreams", I know.

  2. Can anyone share a link to RELIABLE statistics, and/or how such statistics are calcuated? It would appear that the statistics vary according to the desire of the reporters who quote those 'statistics' which suit their stories, and which can vary from one end of the spectrum to the other. Are there even any 'reliable' statistics available ?

  3. Can we please see some comparisons of total death rates from all causes this year, compared to total death rates inn other years? How many CV-19 rreported deaths were related to other factors and would have happened anyway? How do the statistics compare to other year's respiratory illness peaks?

  4. Living in South Africa, Western Cape....going into stage 3...schools...places of worship...prisons...farmers???
    Does any body REALLY KNOW......????

  5. How many people on here actually know someone who has died from this? Certifiably died from this?

  6. mexican online pharmacies prescription drugs [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]mexico pharmacies prescription drugs[/url] buying prescription drugs in mexico online

  7. mexico drug stores pharmacies [url=http://mexicanph.com/#]medicine in mexico pharmacies[/url] mexico drug stores pharmacies

  8. http://mexicanph.com/# buying prescription drugs in mexico
    best online pharmacies in mexico [url=http://mexicanph.com/#]pharmacies in mexico that ship to usa[/url] best online pharmacies in mexico

  9. п»їbest mexican online pharmacies [url=http://mexicanph.shop/#]mexican pharmacy[/url] mexican pharmacy

  10. mexico drug stores pharmacies [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]mexican rx online[/url] mexico drug stores pharmacies

  11. medicine in mexico pharmacies [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]mexican mail order pharmacies[/url] mexican mail order pharmacies

  12. pharmacies in mexico that ship to usa [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]mexican pharmacy[/url] mexican rx online

  13. mexico drug stores pharmacies [url=https://mexicanph.shop/#]purple pharmacy mexico price list[/url] buying prescription drugs in mexico

  14. medication from mexico pharmacy [url=http://mexicanph.com/#]mexican mail order pharmacies[/url] mexican pharmacy

  15. mexican drugstore online [url=http://mexicanph.com/#]п»їbest mexican online pharmacies[/url] mexican pharmacy

  16. reputable mexican pharmacies online [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]purple pharmacy mexico price list[/url] mexican pharmacy

  17. mexican pharmacy [url=http://mexicanph.com/#]medicine in mexico pharmacies[/url] mexican rx online

  18. purple pharmacy mexico price list [url=http://mexicanph.shop/#]medicine in mexico pharmacies[/url] mexico drug stores pharmacies

  19. mexican border pharmacies shipping to usa [url=https://mexicanph.shop/#]reputable mexican pharmacies online[/url] mexico drug stores pharmacies

  20. http://mexicanph.com/# medication from mexico pharmacy
    mexican border pharmacies shipping to usa [url=https://mexicanph.shop/#]mexican drugstore online[/url] pharmacies in mexico that ship to usa

  21. pharmacies in mexico that ship to usa [url=https://mexicanph.com/#]mexican pharmacy[/url] buying from online mexican pharmacy

  22. prednisone online sale [url=http://buyprednisone.store/#]prednisone daily use[/url] prednisone 300mg

  23. buy amoxicillin 500mg online [url=https://amoxil.cheap/#]buy amoxicillin online with paypal[/url] buy amoxicillin over the counter uk

  24. reputable indian online pharmacy [url=https://indianph.xyz/#]best india pharmacy[/url] best india pharmacy

  25. generic diflucan [url=http://diflucan.pro/#]diflucan discount[/url] diflucan online

  26. liquid tamoxifen [url=https://nolvadex.guru/#]nolvadex online[/url] tamoxifen generic

  27. tamoxifen and weight loss [url=http://nolvadex.guru/#]aromatase inhibitor tamoxifen[/url] tamoxifen lawsuit

  28. buy cytotec online [url=https://cytotec24.shop/#]п»їcytotec pills online[/url] Cytotec 200mcg price

  29. nolvadex d [url=https://nolvadex.guru/#]does tamoxifen cause joint pain[/url] what is tamoxifen used for

  30. where to buy diflucan in singapore [url=http://diflucan.pro/#]diflucan where to buy uk[/url] buy diflucan without prescription

  31. top online pharmacy india [url=https://indianpharm24.com/#]Best Indian pharmacy[/url] best india pharmacy indianpharm.store

  32. reputable indian online pharmacy [url=http://indianpharm24.shop/#]buy medicines online in india[/url] world pharmacy india indianpharm.store

  33. canada drugs online review [url=http://canadianpharmlk.shop/#]Canada pharmacy online[/url] buying drugs from canada canadianpharm.store

  34. buy prescription drugs from india [url=http://indianpharm24.shop/#]indian pharmacy[/url] best india pharmacy indianpharm.store

  35. amoxicillin 250 mg [url=https://amoxilst.pro/#]amoxicillin 500 mg purchase without prescription[/url] amoxicillin over the counter in canada

  36. amoxicillin 500mg buy online uk [url=https://amoxilst.pro/#]amoxicillin without rx[/url] where can i buy amoxicillin over the counter uk

  37. how can i get cheap clomid price [url=https://clomidst.pro/#]can i order generic clomid pill[/url] order generic clomid without insurance

  38. ed meds online [url=http://edpills.guru/#]cheapest erectile dysfunction pills[/url] get ed prescription online

  39. best canadian pharmacy no prescription [url=http://onlinepharmacy.cheap/#]online mexican pharmacy[/url] cheapest pharmacy for prescription drugs

  40. canadian pharmacy online store [url=https://canadianpharm.guru/#] vipps canadian pharmacy[/url] best canadian pharmacy online

  41. canada prescription drugs online [url=https://pharmacynoprescription.pro/#]online doctor prescription canada[/url] buy prescription drugs on line

  42. pharmacy with no prescription [url=http://pharmacynoprescription.pro/#]best online pharmacy that does not require a prescription in india[/url] no prescription drugs online

  43. п»їbest mexican online pharmacies [url=http://mexicanpharm.online/#]mexican pharmaceuticals online[/url] mexican mail order pharmacies

  44. mexico pharmacies prescription drugs [url=https://mexicanpharm.online/#]п»їbest mexican online pharmacies[/url] mexican rx online

  45. meds no prescription [url=https://pharmacynoprescription.pro/#]mexico online pharmacy prescription drugs[/url] buying prescription drugs in india

  46. buy medication online with prescription [url=https://pharmacynoprescription.pro/#]order medication without prescription[/url] best online pharmacy that does not require a prescription in india

  47. mexico drug stores pharmacies [url=http://mexicanpharmacy.shop/#]Mexican Pharmacy Online[/url] buying prescription drugs in mexico online

  48. world pharmacy india [url=http://indianpharmacy.icu/#]Generic Medicine India to USA[/url] best india pharmacy

  49. northwest pharmacy canada [url=https://canadianpharmacy24.store/#]pills now even cheaper[/url] online canadian pharmacy

  50. best online pharmacy india [url=http://indianpharmacy.icu/#]indian pharmacy[/url] indian pharmacies safe

  51. buying prescription drugs in mexico online [url=https://mexicanpharmacy.shop/#]Online Pharmacies in Mexico[/url] mexico pharmacy

  52. mexican pharmaceuticals online [url=http://mexicanpharmacy.shop/#]cheapest mexico drugs[/url] mexican pharmaceuticals online

  53. buying prescription drugs in mexico [url=https://mexicanpharmacy.shop/#]mexico pharmacy[/url] mexican pharmacy

  54. mexico pharmacies prescription drugs [url=https://mexicanpharmacy.shop/#]Mexican Pharmacy Online[/url] mexican pharmacy

  55. zithromax 500 mg for sale [url=https://zithromaxall.shop/#]zithromax antibiotic[/url] zithromax z-pak

  56. 60 mg prednisone daily [url=http://prednisoneall.shop/#]prednisone 2.5 mg price[/url] how much is prednisone 10mg

  57. generic amoxicillin cost [url=http://amoxilall.shop/#]amoxicillin 500 mg capsule[/url] amoxicillin 500 mg where to buy

  58. zithromax price canada [url=https://zithromaxall.com/#]where can i buy zithromax capsules[/url] buy zithromax no prescription

  59. zithromax prescription [url=https://zithromaxall.com/#]zithromax capsules australia[/url] zithromax 250 mg

  60. prednisone 5 mg brand name [url=https://prednisoneall.shop/#]prednisone steroids[/url] prednisone brand name us

  61. Kamagra 100mg price [url=http://kamagraiq.shop/#]Sildenafil Oral Jelly[/url] sildenafil oral jelly 100mg kamagra

  62. Viagra generic over the counter [url=https://sildenafiliq.xyz/#]generic ed pills[/url] Buy Viagra online cheap

  63. buy cialis pill [url=http://tadalafiliq.com/#]tadalafil iq[/url] Cialis over the counter

  64. buy cialis pill [url=https://tadalafiliq.shop/#]tadalafil iq[/url] cialis for sale

  65. Cialis without a doctor prescription [url=https://tadalafiliq.com/#]Generic Tadalafil 20mg price[/url] Buy Tadalafil 10mg

  66. over the counter sildenafil [url=http://sildenafiliq.com/#]best price on viagra[/url] Generic Viagra online

  67. best canadian online pharmacy reviews [url=https://canadianpharmgrx.xyz/#]My Canadian pharmacy[/url] canadian drug prices

  68. mexican rx online [url=http://mexicanpharmgrx.shop/#]mexico drug stores pharmacies[/url] buying prescription drugs in mexico

  69. mail order pharmacy india [url=http://indianpharmgrx.com/#]pharmacy website india[/url] п»їlegitimate online pharmacies india

  70. mexican drugstore online [url=http://mexicanpharmgrx.com/#]Mexico drugstore[/url] medication from mexico pharmacy

  71. mexican online pharmacies prescription drugs [url=https://mexicanpharmgrx.com/#]Mexico drugstore[/url] pharmacies in mexico that ship to usa

  72. canada drugs online [url=http://canadianpharmgrx.xyz/#]canadian drug stores[/url] best canadian online pharmacy reviews

  73. reputable indian online pharmacy [url=https://indianpharmgrx.shop/#]Healthcare and medicines from India[/url] reputable indian pharmacies

  74. mail order pharmacy india [url=https://indianpharmgrx.shop/#]Generic Medicine India to USA[/url] reputable indian pharmacies

  75. tamoxifen and bone density [url=http://nolvadex.icu/#]tamoxifen adverse effects[/url] nolvadex generic

  76. diflucan 50mg tablet [url=https://diflucan.icu/#]diflucan 200 mg capsules[/url] generic diflucan prices

  77. tamoxifen cost [url=https://nolvadex.icu/#]nolvadex d[/url] aromatase inhibitors tamoxifen

  78. does tamoxifen make you tired [url=http://nolvadex.icu/#]femara vs tamoxifen[/url] tamoxifen breast cancer prevention

  79. buy doxycycline cheap [url=http://doxycyclinest.pro/#]doxycycline generic[/url] doxycycline 100mg dogs

  80. tamoxifen postmenopausal [url=http://nolvadex.icu/#]tamoxifen endometrium[/url] tamoxifen blood clots

  81. does tamoxifen cause weight loss [url=http://nolvadex.icu/#]nolvadex estrogen blocker[/url] does tamoxifen cause menopause

  82. what is tamoxifen used for [url=https://nolvadex.icu/#]tamoxifen estrogen[/url] tamoxifen headache

  83. Cytotec 200mcg price [url=https://misoprostol.top/#]buy cytotec pills online cheap[/url] п»їcytotec pills online

  84. can you buy cheap clomid without prescription [url=http://clomida.pro/#]where can i buy generic clomid pills[/url] cheap clomid tablets

  85. buy amoxicillin 500mg [url=https://amoxicillina.top/#]rexall pharmacy amoxicillin 500mg[/url] where can i buy amoxicillin over the counter

  86. amoxicillin 500 mg for sale [url=http://amoxicillina.top/#]amoxicillin 500 mg price[/url] where to buy amoxicillin 500mg without prescription

  87. cost generic clomid no prescription [url=https://clomida.pro/#]can i get generic clomid online[/url] cost of generic clomid no prescription

  88. non prescription medicine pharmacy [url=https://onlinepharmacyworld.shop/#]no prescription pharmacy paypal[/url] cheapest pharmacy for prescription drugs

  89. online prescription for ed [url=http://edpill.top/#]order ed pills[/url] ed doctor online